Trump Tops Harris In Nate Silver’s Model Weeks Out From Election

Former President Trump has gained a narrow lead over Vice President Harris in pollster Nate Silver’s prediction model just weeks before Election Day.

Although the race remains essentially a toss-up, Trump now leads Harris by just over half a percentage point, with 50.2 percent to Harris’s 49.5 percent, according to the model updated Thursday afternoon.

“However nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19,” Silver wrote on his Silver Bulletin site.

The political forecaster noted that just a day earlier, Harris was leading Trump by about a point, with 50.3 percent to 49.4 percent.

Trump gained ground with “some good polls” entering the database on Thursday, Silver wrote, including a 2-point lead in a Fox News poll and a lead in a Georgia survey, The Hill noted.

Harris took the lead in Silver’s polling aggregation model nearly a month ago. Neither candidate gained or lost significant ground after the earlier presidential debate on September 10, but Harris was performing strongly in five swing states, giving her an advantage.

However, in September, Silver cautioned that the dynamics could shift before Election Day. He conveyed the same message in his Thursday post.

“There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter,” he wrote.

Harris was riding high on momentum just a few months ago. After receiving President Biden’s endorsement when he exited the race, she quickly gained traction over Trump nationally and in swing states as the Democrats’ nominee at the party’s convention.

However, recent polls indicate that that momentum has leveled off, with Trump gaining ground nationally and in battleground states as the election approaches.

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index, Harris currently holds a 2.7 percentage point lead over Trump, with 49.8 percent support compared to Trump’s 47.1 percent.